Guest Post By Walter Dnes
The NOAA(NCDC) January data set update was delayed. It came in during the afternoon/evening of March 6th. With all the January data being in, now is the time for the January Leading Indicator “JLI” algorithm forecast to “put up or shut up”, and make forecasts for 2014. As described here and here, the JLI algorithm is not a “real forecast” per se, but rather a “zero skill baseline” that a “real forecast” has to beat in order to show skill. The only excuse I’ll use for missing the forecasts is a Pinatubo-scale event, i.e. a major volcano (or meteorite/comet impact) that kicks up a significant amount of particulates/sulfates/etc. into the stratosphere.
First, the raw data. Because some of the data sets adjust their past data every month, the algorithm would produce slightly different results each month for the quantitative forecasts. In close cases, even the qualitative forecasts can change. In order to allow reproduction of the results, the January 2014 data sets, as downloaded in February 2014, are attached here, along with the spreadsheet used for the calculations.
The Qualitative Forecasts
- HadCRUT v3
The January 2014 HadCRUT3 monthly anomaly was 0.472 versus 0.392 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast to be warmer than the 2013 annual mean of 0.459.
- HadCRUT v4
The January 2014 HadCRUT4 monthly anomaly was 0.506 versus 0.450 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast to be warmer than the 2013 annual mean of 0.488.
- GISS
The January 2014 GISS monthly anomaly was 0.70 versus 0.63 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast to be warmer than the 2013 annual mean of 0.603.
- UAH v5.6
The January 2014 UAH5.6 monthly anomaly was 0.291 versus 0.497 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast be cooler than the 2013 annual mean of 0.236.
- RSS
The January 2014 RSS monthly anomaly was 0.262 versus 0.439 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast to be cooler than the 2013 annual mean of 0.218.
- NOAA (NCDC)
The January 2014 NOAA (NCDC) monthly anomaly was 0.6480 versus 0.5491 in January 2013. The 2014 annual mean anomaly is forecast to be warmer than the 2013 annual mean of 0.625.
The Quantitative Forecasts
Due to the noisiness of the data it is possible for the qualitative forecast to indicate a warmer value than the previous year, while the quantitative forecast indicates a cooler value (or vice versa). This type of mixed signal occurs for 2014 in the land data sets, where the qualitative forecast is for warmer than the previous year, but quantitative forecast is for a cooler year.
Tab “jan_and_avg_2” of the spreadsheet has some statistics in the block P1:V4, comparing the January anomalies with the annual anomalies. These include slope() and intercept(). Once we have the January anomaly, we can apply the old “y = mx + b” linear equation to get a quantitative prediction for the year.
- HadCRUT v3 * The slope in cell Q3 is 0.81614. The intercept in cell R4 is 0.02345. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.472. Applying the standard “y = mx + b” equation, we get a predicted 2014 annual anomaly of +0.409 with an unknown error margin.
- HadCRUT v4 * The slope in cell R3 is 0.77609. The intercept in cell R4 is 0.02637. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.506. Applying the standard “y = mx + b” equation, we get a predicted 2014 annual anomaly of +0.419 with an unknown error margin.
- GISS * The slope in cell S3 is 0.81358. The intercept in cell S4 is 0.03062. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.70. Applying the standard “y = mx + b” equation, we get a predicted 2014 annual anomaly of +0.600 with an unknown error margin.
- UAH v5.6 * The slope in cell T3 is 0.64062. The intercept in cell T4 is 0.01732. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.291. Applying the standard “y = mx + b” equation, we get a predicted 2014 annual anomaly of 0.64062 * 0.291 + 0.01732 = 0.204 with an unknown error margin.
- RSS * The slope in cell U3 is 0.64755 and the intercept in cell U4 is 0.03456. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.262 The predicted 2014 annual anomaly is 0.64755 * 0.262 + 0.03456 = 0.204 with an unknown error margin.
- NOAA (NCDC) * The slope in cell V3 is 0.84179 and the intercept in cell V4 is 0.04571. The Jan 2014 anomaly is +0.648 The predicted 2014 annual anomaly is 0.84179 * 0.648 + 0.04571 = 0.591 with an unknown error margin.
In weather forecasting, one generally goes with the model consensus, or at least the majority opinion. The JLI …
- qualitative forecast indicates 4 (surface) data sets warmer and 2 (satellite) data sets cooler
- quantitative forecast indicates all 6 data sets cooler
The “cooler” runs outnumber the “warmer” runs 8 to 4. So I’ll go with a somewhat cooler year overall.
The Met Office 2014 Prediction
19 December 2013 — The global average temperature in 2014 is expected to be between 0.43 C and 0.71 C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 C, with a central estimate of 0.57 C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.
Their forecast is based on the average of HadCRUT4, GISS, and NOAA(NCDC) anomalies. Using the numbers from the JLI quantitative anomaly forecasts, the JLI equivalent forecast is…
( 0.419 + 0.600 + .591 ) / 3 = 0.537
I acknowledge that I have an additional 2 months of data available compared to what UK Met Office had when they made their forecast.
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from The Weather Channel 03-06-2014:
“A new report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests changes could be on the way for weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.
According to the report, the chance of an El Niño reemerging this year has increased. And, if the models from the report play out, that could mean fewer named storms in the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season and potential drought relief for parts of California later this year.”
Does your post reflect this prediction? Maybe a negative anomaly for hurricanes in 2014? And what about EL Nino for 2014?
Julius, my monkey, said it will be slightly cooler than normal and no El Nino.
So, JLI os basically a warmista forecast. One is warmer, one is cooler.
Hard to be wrong, that way.
I agree, I believe that this years temperature figures will, on average, be lower than last years. Now all we have to do is wait 10 more months or so to see 🙂
But I do like the work. I use the JLI as well, and not just in finance. It appears to be more accurate than monkeys throwing darts, at least.
Zek202 says: March 7, 2014 at 10:26 a
from The Weather Channel 03-06-2014:
“A new report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests changes could be on the way for weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.
According to the report, the chance of an El Niño reemerging this year has increased. And, if the models from the report play out, that could mean fewer named storms in the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season and potential drought relief for parts of California later this year.”
According to CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/06/us/el-nino-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that there’s about a 50% chance of a weather phenomenon called El Nino developing this summer or fall. That’s not a guarantee, but conditions are favorable enough in the next six months to warrant an ‘El Nino Watch.'”
“Because El Nino warms up the atmosphere as a whole, we may see a mini global warming phenomenon, Trenberth said. Places that shivered through a deep freeze this year may see above-average temperatures next winter, if the pattern continues, Trenberth said”
“Right now the El Nino Southern Oscillation is in its “neutral” phase — neither warm nor cool — but models suggest that El Nino could develop.”
In summary, we have no idea what’s going to happen…
Those El Nino models have been predicting a significant El Nino for two years now. They have zero skill. Nobody knows what will happen this year or next.
Zek202 says:
> March 7, 2014 at 10:26 am
> from The Weather Channel 03-06-2014:
> “A new report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction
> Center suggests changes could be on the way
> for weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.
>
> According to the report, the chance of an El Niño
> reemerging this year has increased. And, if the
> models from the report play out, that could mean
> fewer named storms in the 2014 Atlantic
> hurricane season and potential drought relief for
> parts of California later this year.”
>
> Does your post reflect this prediction? Maybe a
> negative anomaly for hurricanes in 2014? And
> what about EL Nino for 2014?
The JLI doesn’t forecast Nino/Nina. Maybe indirectly in that warmer implies El Nino and cooler implies La Nina. The forecast at http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif seems to always be indicating a strong El Nino “Real Soon Now”. So I tend to take their forecasts with a bag of salt.
Assume a well-trained monkey.
The forecast for El Nino (ONI >+0.5C) to appear it needs a La Nina charging event (i.e. strengthening tropical pacific westerlies). In the Monday 3 March ENSO, there is this chart statement, “During the last half of January 2014, a strong westerly wind burst occurred
over the western equatorial Pacific. Over the last couple weeks, another strong burst has emerged.” So rather than sustained strengthening westerlies, there are these “bursts”. Suggests weak charging events are occurring. Whether these pickup in frequency the next 3 months will dictate how much El Nino tropical heat redist. comes out in Aug/Sept/Oct.
Using the simplistic assumption, but often correct, that immediate previous dynamics suggests the next, I find it more likely than not that this 2014 El Nino will peter-out before it can begin, just like it did in 2012. (Easterbrook would likely say it is the negative PDO suppressing El Nino’s).
Thus El Nino if it appears will be quite weak and not enough to affect the long term bump in temps that Trenberth is anxiously awaiting to save face.
The JLI thus is likely to be correct (within error bars) that 2014 wont be significantly diff from 2013. The Pause Continues is where my money is.
John A. Fleming says: March 7, 2014 at 10:39 am
Those El Nino models have been predicting a significant El Nino for two years now. They have zero skill. Nobody knows what will happen this year or next.
Yes, per the quote at the top of the new WUWT ENSO Forecast Reference Page;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/enso-forecast-page/
“Model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage here.” Bob Tisdale
And per this paper;
“Real-time model predictions of ENSO conditions during the 2002–11 period are evaluated and compared to skill levels documented in studies of the 1990s. ENSO conditions are represented by the Niño- 3.4 SST index in the east-central tropical Pacific. The skills of 20 prediction models (12 dynamical, 8 statistical) are examined. Results indicate skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s. Using hindcasts spanning 1981–2011, this finding is explained by the relatively greater predictive challenge posed by the 2002–11 period and suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models. After adjusting for the varying difficulty level, the skills of 2002–11 are slightly higher than those of earlier decades. Unlike earlier results, the average skill of dynamical models slightly, but statistically significantly, exceeds that of statistical models for start times just before the middle of the year when prediction has proven most difficult. The greater skill of dynamical models is largely attributable to the subset of dynamical models with the most advanced, high resolution, fully coupled ocean–atmosphere prediction systems using sophisticated data assimilation systems and large ensembles. This finding suggests that additional advances in skill remain likely, with the expected implementation of better physics, numeric and assimilation schemes, finer resolution, and larger ensemble sizes.”
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1
ENSO forecasts are apparently getting worse…
““Right now the El Nino Southern Oscillation is in its “neutral” phase — neither warm nor cool — but models suggest that El Nino could develop.”
In summary, we have no idea what’s going to happen…
#################
actually that’s a pretty bad summary of what is known.
Brian H says: March 7, 2014 at 10:46 am
R Babcock says: March 7, 2014 at 10:27 am
“Julius, my monkey, said it will be slightly cooler than normal and no El Nino.”
“Assume a well-trained monkey.”
I believe that this is the monkey you may be referring to, and the video is well worth a watch:
“The Pause Continues is where my money is.”
I realize it’s immensely complicated given various starting points etc, but anyone have a number on how much warmer it would have to get for 2014, for the warmists to credibly argue the pause has paused?
Steven Mosher says: March 7, 2014 at 11:02 am
actually that’s a pretty bad summary of what is known.
Please enlighten us as to “what is known”. Do you think that “we may see a mini global warming phenomenon”?…
For the absolutely, most accurate predictions, the monkeys should be blind-folded before throwing the darts.
I’ll say cooler because El Nino has not even starting forming and more importantly no one is even talking about El Nino intensity or intensity in context with multidecadal cycle cooling.
This may interest:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/post/-/blog/21745961/el-nino-this-year-probably-not/
Essentially, next El Nino due to start July 2015 according to http://www.predictweather.com
Steven Mosher says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:02 am
““Right now the El Nino Southern Oscillation is in its “neutral” phase — neither warm nor cool — but models suggest that El Nino could develop.”
In summary, we have no idea what’s going to happen…
#################
actually that’s a pretty bad summary of what is known.
Steven, STOP IT !! That says nothing about what’s known and it says that nothing is known and that is about what well known climate scientist have been achieving in terms of forecasts over the past 15 years.
Anybody who forecasts a chaotic system with more than one forcing more than 5 days ahead is either a fool or very courageous.
pokerguy says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:07 am
but anyone have a number on how much warmer it would have to get for 2014, for the warmists to credibly argue the pause has paused
That is an excellent question, however it is impossible to answer unless we know exactly what you wish to know. Just to illustrate my point, take a look at the following that shows RSS and Hadcrut3 along with the times for a slope of 0.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.65/plot/rss/from:1996.65/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.55/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.55/trend
Look at the Hadcrut3 starting point. It is right on the upward sloped blue line so a warm February could knock it off and the pause for Hadcrut3 decreases from 16 years and 6 months to over 13 years.
Now look at the area below the green line for RSS. Here, we could almost have a year of fairly high temperatures before the new area above the green line on the right equals the area below the green line on the left. So if an El Nino started tomorrow, the time would stay at close to 17 years and 6 months for a while. It is just that the starting and ending time for the pause would continually shift by a month or so each month.
Then we need to know what is meant by the pause. Are we talking no change at all for 16 years or is 13 years also considered a pause? Or is 10 years considered a pause?
Or we may have to ask if we mean 95% statistically significant warming. Does that have to be more than 15 years in order for us to officially say we are in a pause, at least for any particular data set?
kenmoonman says:
> March 7, 2014 at 11:26 am
>
> This may interest:
> http://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/post/-/blog/21745961/el-nino-this-year-probably-not/
> Essentially, next El Nino due to start July 2015 according to http://www.predictweather.com
I read the blog post. Total hooey. It’s bad enough when it claims that ancient Hindi astronomers knew about Pluto, but attributing the recent British floods to it takes the cake. Even if we believe in planetary tidal influences, Venus/Mars/Jupiter/Saturn/Uranus/Neptune are all much closer and heavier than Pluto. Pluto (actually Pluto/Charon) is composed of a couple of overgrown snowballs orbiting a mutual centre of gravity.
A Model prediction with an “unknown error margin” is a prediction?
You could calculate an error by doing this for back years and finding the standard deviation.
Monkeys? I’ve got – no, sorry, I serve – cats who can do as well.
And one of them is a right stroppy little so-and-so.
Predicting weather really is a mug’s game here in “Euro Region XVII” as I understand these sceptr’d isles are to become.
Climate – summers and winters sort of thing – is less difficult. We can have the cricket stop play for snow: cricket is a summer game (nominally).
Weather tomorrow – pretty close to today, even here in England.
At least – that’s the way to bet.
Has the Met Office ever done a study on when their weather forecasting was better than ‘Like today’ – perhaps with error margins; if so, I bet it was in the Seventies. Far more voluntary observing ships then, more scientific rigour, and far less watermelon prejudice.
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